Analysts say inflation tempered at 7%

According to economists, inflation registered a monthly advance of 0.4-0.8 percent.  The annual November 2008-November 2007 growth rate was 6.7-7.3 percent.  The National Bank of Romania (BNR) set an inflation target for 2008 of 2.8-4.8 percent, and 2.5-4.5 percent for 2009.  According to the most recent prognoses, BNR is expecting inflation to reach 6.7 percent by the end of the year.  Ionut Dumitru, Chief Economist of Raiffeisen Bank Romania indicated that monthly consumer price rises amounted to 0.4 percent in November.

“Month-on-month, from October to November, inflation advanced 0.4 percent.  This means that in annual terms, the month of November registered a rise in prices of 6.8 percent.  Furthermore, for the last month of this year, we estimate a 0.6 percent monthly advance and 6.7 percent annual growth,” said Dumitru.

A less pessimistic forecast was advanced by Nicolae-Alexandru Chidesciuc, Senior Economist of ING Bank Romania, who believes that prices rose 0.6 percent month-on-month, which corresponds to an annual 7 percent advance.  By the end of the year, inflation should also reach 7 percent.  Another prognosis, made by Lucian Anghel, Chief Economist of Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR), is based on a slight drop in prices in November.  “I believe that consumer prices will advance 0.6-0.8 percent in November, which means annual inflation of 7-7.3 percent.  The exchange rate has played an important part in the tempering of inflation.  Furthermore, there has been a drop in fuel prices, which was not felt last month.  However, I feel that the price of foodstuffs, with few exceptions, have continued to rise.  This can be explained by the fact that we continue to have excess demand for these products,” added Anghel.