Bankers agree on a RON 3.74/€ 1 forward exchange rate

Millennium Bank economists are recommending a forward exchange rate of 3.67 to their clients, while ING Bank is already operating on a RON 3.7448/€ 1 forward exchange rate.

"The weakening of the leu's exchange rate could force BNR [the National Bank of Romania] to tighten the monetary policy and even intervene on the market if the European currency reaches a RON 3.6 exchange rate," said Sorin Olaru, Chief Economist of Millennium Bank, adding that the further deterioration of the U.S. loan market is weakening the leu.

Daniel Daianu, member of the Supervisory Board of Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR), sees the rapid depreciation of the leu as a useful tool for adjusting the economy. "We bemoaned a strong appreciation of the leu. I did not salute this because it is like a drug some people take. We import at apparent low prices, we consume more than we can afford. Depreciation is the other side of the coin and a tool for adjusting the economy. Give producers an oxygen bubble and discourage imports a bit," Daianu added.

He also warned that a strong depreciation also has harmful effects, such as an increase in inflation and loss of confidence in the national currency, which can lead to a foreign currency conversion of savings.