The advertising markets in the region, with the exception of that in Bulgaria, are expected to grow in 2010, but the bank’s analysts forecast that the recovery will be felt no sooner than 2011, when the confidence of consumers and expenses will rise.
The forecasts of Erste analysts for the whole of 2009 are pessimistic as far as Romania is concerned, as the country could fall to second place, after Ukraine, in terms of decline, with a percentage estimated at 26.1 percent, while the Bulgarian market could fall 24 percent. The report includes the forecast by ZenithOptimedia, which estimates a 3.4 percent growth of the advertising market in 2010 and 9.8 percent in 2011. These rates do not coincide with the estimates by Erste analysts, who predict the advertising market will increase 5.5 percent in 2010 in Central and Eastern Europe, and by 9.5 percent in 2011.
Although the report forecasts growth, various risk factors are taken into account. “Probably the biggest threat is the so-called double-dip recession or the “W” shape development. The risks are relatively high, as growing unemployment could curb consumer spending, and after an initial macroeconomic recovery fuelled by inventory re-building, there could be a period of stagnation or decline,” the report states.
The current economic climate confirmed the trend of advertisers to move their advertising budgets from the written press to the internet. “Traditional publishers are therefore undermining themselves by offering advertisers the use of their own electronic versions of their newspapers, as they do not want to be left out of the Internet market boom,” indicates the report.
