Brokers interviewed by Business Standard had differing opinions about the future evolution of the Stock Exchange. Thus, five of the 12 interviewed brokers estimated declines of up to 30 percent on the main indexes, while a further six indicated that new increases are more likely by year-end. One broker said that the indexes can register variations of 10-15 percent in either direction.
However, brokers stressed the fact that these estimates relate to normal market conditions, and a major, unexpected event could radically change things.
“Personally, I see the BET [Ed. n. – the index of the ten most liquid listed companies, excluding the financial investment companies] somewhere at 5,500. Liquid shares, and our Stock Exchange in general, have stagnated recently compared to what happened on foreign markets. The blue-chips fell behind compared to small cap companies; this is why I expect to see a better evolution in the case of blue-chips in the last months of this year,” said Laurentiu Floroiu, Trading Director at the EFG Eurobank Securities brokerage firm.
The BET index was worth 4676.03 points at the end of last week, up more than 61 percent year-to-date. At the same time, the BET-FI index, which follows the evolution of the five financial investment companies (SIF) gained over 86 percent this year, amounting to 2,372.05 points.
“I expect a significant correction on the market, with the levels of indexes at year-end 20 percent below what we are seeing now. Interest is already declining, the lack of foreigners in the past two weeks rather obvious, especially compared to previous months,” said Silviu Turc, broker with the Broker Cluj company.
