Fitch: Romania not expected to adopt the euro until 2015

The Romanian National Bank (BNR) set the year 2014 as the date for adopting the single European currency, which requires Romania to enter the ERM-2 antechamber in 2012. Certain criteria is necessary for the country to accede to the euro zone, specifically in terms of the budget deficit, evolution of consumer prices, public debt, and the exchange rate.

However, the estimate made by the Fitch agency regarding Romania’s inability to enter the euro zone on the date it has proposed for itself is considered inadequate by the country’s economic environment. “In the present context, I believe it is difficult to make a long-term prediction, because it is impossible to know what turn the world will take in the short-term. I believe that to make such predictions is ambitious, and even a sign of arrogance. Besides, let us not forget that the rating agencies were unable to predict what happened on a much shorter term, as was the case with the United States crisis,” said Florin Pogonaru, President of the Association of Romanian Businesspeople (AOAR).

Fitch added that global financial turbulence has amplified risks for Romanian banks and expects lower banking financing availability and increased costs for credits, a situation that may lead to an economic slowdown. Likewise, Romania risks falling behind states in the region whose economic perspectives are comparable in terms of business destination, because structural and institutional reforms have slowed, and the tax policy is insufficiently restrictive, concluded the Fitch report.