Specialists say that Romania will officially adopt the euro in 2015, in line with the target of the authorities, according to a Reuters survey, quoted by the Mediafax news agency.
Romania must reduce its budget deficit and inflation rate, and stabilize the exchange rate in order to overcome the most difficult obstacles prior to entering the euro zone.
ERM-2 allows the national currency to fluctuate +/– 15 percent against the euro for a period of two years. The level of the exchange rate when Romania adopts the euro will determine the share of the country’s economy in the European Union, which means that a strong leu would be desirable. On the other hand, a sharp appreciation will make the economy more vulnerable to deficits. In case of the average estimate of RON 3.9/€1in 2012, made by Reuters, the conversion rate can reach a low of RON 2.8 and a high of RON 5.15 after the two years of ERM-2. The minimum estimate, of RON 3, means a conversion rate of RON 2.17 in 2015 in case of constant appreciation, while the high of RON 5 means a maximum exchange rate of RON 6.61/€1 in case of constant depreciation.
