“Generally, I estimate that all three waves will be felt in Romania,” Pascu said. In Western Europe, the crisis was acknowledged early this year, but the impact on the foodstuff and cosmetics segments was only felt in the fourth quarter of 2008, according to Pascu.
In Romania, both the real estate and auto markets, which were thriving until early 2008, are currently facing a decline in demand. The sales of local car manufacturer Automobile Dacia shrunk 13.1 percent in the fi rst 10 months of this year, while the overall new car market dropped 5.7 percent, according to data from the Automotive Manufacturers and Importers Association (APIA). In October, demand dropped by one third.
And things are not likely to improve in the fi eld, according to the Manager of Porsche Retail Auto importer, Alin Tapalaga, who told Business Standard that “next June we will witness the fi rst bankruptcies in the auto industry.” According to the Marketing Manager of Hyundai Auto Romania car distributor, Marius Cocu “the crisis will peak in March-April 2009 in the auto industry.”
After houses and cars, consumers will become more reserved about buying household appliances, IT products and furniture. Pascu did indicate that demand will not disappear altogether. “Moving into a new home means buying furniture. For this reason, there is still a sound client base to support sales. Demand does not vanish immediately,” he added.
On the IT&C market, the crisis was fi rst felt in product retail, and some of the market players have revised their strategies, putting expansion on hold. In 2009, the business software market is expected to increase by a mere 8 percent, compared to the initial 25 percent growth estimate. Players in the telecom fi eld also expect their turnover to be aff ected by the crisis.
The third crisis wave, to aff ect fast moving consumer goods, is expected to hit in the fi rst half of 2009. Foodstuff s are the last to be impacted. “The crisis is still at an early stage in Romania. Most likely it will be felt fully as of 2009, especially in the fi eld of services and retail, with consumers changing their habits and focusing on retailers that off er small prices, according to the President of the Association of Major Retail Networks in Romania (AMRCR), Alexandru Vlad. He added that hard-discount stores are going to benefi t from this situation, as their market share will increase due to the lower prices of their products.
