Analysts forecasting 0.9 percent inflation in October

Last year’s October inflation stood at 0.21 percent. Analysts say the increase in inflation is due to the severe drought this year, which led to a rise in food prices. Their estimate comes one day before the National Institute of Statistics (INS) is expected to provide data on monthly inflation.

"The monthly inflation for October could be 0.85 percent while that for the eyar might amount to 6.93 percent. I hope the inflation rate is not higher than this," the President of Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA), Dragos Cabat, told Business Standard. One of Concept Economic Consultancy company’s Directors, Aurelian Dochia, is more pessimistic, as his October inflation forecast is 0.9 percent. He added the annual inflation rate in December could be as much as 6 percent.

The Romanian National Bank (BNR) last week revised upward the annual inflation forecast by 1.8 percent, to 5.7 percent. This means missing the inflation target by 0.7 percent, as it had been set at 4 percent, plus/minus one percentage point. The central bank also provided a higher inflation forecast for 2008,of 4.3 percent, from the previous 3.7 percent.