The mall market is the least risky segment of all real estate businesses in the coming year. These are the forecasts by major Romanian real estate sector owners: Gabriel Popoviciu, George Becali, Iulian Dascalu, Ion Tiriac, and the Hungarian TriGranit group, made exclusively for Business Standard.
Businessman Popoviciu controls the Baneasa Investments company, which is developing the Baneasa project, the largest 221-hectare real estate complex locally, which includes office, commercial, and residential spaces. He said that 2009 will bring stagnation on the real estate market, and that the retail segment will register the best development. Becali estimates that prices will double once the crisis passes. He stressed that there are many businesspeople that are facing financial difficulties and are selling their land at low prices.
According to the latest market study by the Colliers International real estate advisory company, it is unlikely that developers will continue to focus on areas which have been popular in the past two-three years (neighborhoods such as Militari, Drumul Taberei, Colentina, Titan, and Pantelimon) and will opt for central areas. Colliers is estimating that areas such as Bucurestii Noi, Chitila, Odai, Gara Obor, Salajan, Rahova, and Ferentari will not be subject to any transactions until the financial crisis ends. “In 2009, prices will drop by 10-20 percent, especially in non-central areas,” indicate the authors of the study.
The largest players in the field said that a decision by banks to grant loans to those who wish to make acquisitions in the real estate sector would boost the entire economy.
“Everything is up to lenders. We hope they will begin granting loans as of April-May 2009,” said Dan Ghibernea, Country Manager of TriGranit. This company owns some 382 hectares of land in cities such as Bucharest, Cluj-Napoca, Constanta, and Brasov.
Iulian Dascalu, the largest mall owner in the country, with 346,000 square meters in four commercial centers outside Bucharest, said that developers must regain the trust of banks in the projects they submit for financing.
Officials of Tiriac Imobiliare expect the 2009 sales trend on the residential segment will remain constant. Businessman Ion Tiriac has focused his investments specifically to the real estate market in the past two years, and announced several residential projects, targeting the middle and luxury class, and developers in the commercial area.
Liviu Tudor, majority shareholder of Genesis Development and the Prefabricate Vest construction material producer, has a more pessimistic view. “We can celebrate if we see a real estate project initiated next year. Foreign banks which are financing the real estate segment will not bring new funds, but neither will they withdraw their financing off the market,” Tudor said.
