Although the figures mark technical recession, with two consecutive quarters of economic drop, Government officials are the first to say that revival signs are visible. “As of April, there were signs of economic rebound, but I am moderately optimistic. There are positive signals in the economy and there are chances of revival in the second and third quarters,” Prime Minister Emil Boc said.
On the other hand, analysts and businesspeople are painting a grimmer picture and say that the -4 percent of the GDP forecast agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for the end of 2009 is an optimistic scenario. However, the Q1 shock is not likely to repeat and the economy is likely to register a slight quarterly advance, most analysts interviewed by Business Standard agree.”The -4 percent target is realistic, but it will not be achieved if no measure is taken,” according to the President of Industry, Services and Trade Employers’ Union Confederation (CPISC), Adrian Izvoranu. The Secretary General of Romanian Businesspeople Association, Cristian Parvan, says that a rebound is possible, but it depends on agriculture. “It is not as bad as we were expecting. And I expect that the second and third quarters are better than the first three months,” Parvan said.
Businessman Dinu Particiu, one of Romania’s wealthiest, says that the crisis impact can only be avoided by lowering taxes. Furthermore, he is expecting a sharp depreciation of the national currency. As for the crisis, “I expect it to last three or five more years, in the worst-case scenario,” he said during a Realitatea TV station talk-show. Although Romania registered the sharpest GDP drop in the region in Q1, the President of Austrian Raiffeisen International lender, Herbert Stepic, says that Romania is generally doing better than other states, because it is not largely depending on exports. “It does not mean that Romania is not suffering
for errors of the past,” he added, speaking of the hike in consumer loans, which led to significant imports and a wider current account deficit. “I doubt that there are many who think that the current crisis is nearing the end. I would say that this is the beginning of the real economy crisis,” Stepic told Mediafax news agency.
