The most optimistic forecasts indicate that domestic wheat production will amount to 3 million tons in 2007, only half year-on-year. Some two million tons are needed by the commercial sector (for bread and baked goods), 500,000 tons are needed for sowing, about 700,000 tons are used by households in rural areas, while a further 600,000 tons are necessary for fodder.
Representatives of the Millers' Trade and Bakery Industry Owners' Association Rompan say that Romania is to import a total of some 1 million tons of wheat this year. About 350,000 tons have already been imported.
The purchase price for wheat increased in the past few days to some RON 0.6 (€0.3) per kilogram, from RON 0.45 (€0.14), and is likely to further increase, according to Rompan President, Aurel Popescu, for Business Standard. In July 2006, the price for wheat was RON 0.35 (€0.11), at a total production of 5.5 million tons.
Popescu added that the price of bread could rise 5-6 percent in the coming days alone, depending on each producer.
Thus, in spite of lower wheat production, high prices could lead to an increase in the market by €50 million, thus exceeding €1 billion. Companies in this field could obtain a profit ratio of about 2-3 percent. The level of wheat trading will also increase, given an estimate price of up to €230 per ton by the end of the year, compared to a current €190 per ton. Grain traders are likely to make profit ratios up to 10 percent. Wheat prices have already increased in Europe by some €60 in the past three months, from €130 per ton.
Representatives of the bakery industry agree their products will become more expensive. "The price of flour has already increased 16 percent in the past two weeks, given that the price of wheat keeps rising," according to the General Manager of Pambac Bacau, Alin Giurea. He said new prices, 5-6 percent higher, will go into effect as of August 1st for baked good and pastries. "The price increase will be gradual, and we will see where this leads," he added.
Agricultural producers blame intermediaries for the higher wheat prices. "On the one hand, intermediaries buy wheat at the lowest price, without papers, from farmers. Farmers prefer selling cheap, rather than stockpiling wheat, while intermediaries sell at higher prices, arguing that there is a crisis on the market," according to the President of the National Federation of Agricultural Producers (FNPAR), Viorel Matei.
Acest articol nu reprezintă consultanță financiară.
Newsletter zilnic money.ro
BET, curs valutar, știrea zilei — în 2 minute, înainte de 7:00.
