“The central bank’s goal is the stability of the foreign exchange market, and it is a stable presence on this market. BNR’s [National Bank of Romania] role is to warn players on the foreign exchange market when they exceed certain limits. Romania’s foreign deficit narrowed to four percent from 13 percent, although the forecast for this year was eight percent, and, according to BNR’s Governor, a depreciation of the national currency is not necessary in these conditions,” said Adrian Vasilescu, Advisor to BNR Governor Mugur Isarescu.
The postponement of the third tranche from the IMF, worth some €1.5 billion, will not lead to a significant depreciation of the leu in the near future, because the decision was expected by investors and the central bank will correct any declines of the national currency, specialists interviewed by Business Standard said.
“I believe that the Fund’s decision has a negative effect on the leu, and BNR will have to make more direct interventions to support the exchange rate. Of course, the evolution of the national currency will depend to a great extent on that of currencies in the region, but I believe we will see a decoupling of the leu therefrom. Another effect will translate into lower foreign currency entries in the near future,” said Chief Economist of UniCredit Tiriac Bank, Rozalia Pal.
“The effect of the IMF’s decision on the leu-euro exchange rate is inexistent, because the rate continues to be of some 4.3 units per euro. The exchange rate has not exceeded this level and I believe that, for now, it is not in the sights of investors, because these are waiting for clarification of the political situation,” said the dealer of Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR), Narcis Noaghea.
