The difference in economic growth between Romania and the euro-zone will be maintained at some 2.5-3 percentage points. Thus, countries using the European currency will register an average drop in the economy of slightly over one percent.
“Services, trade, and construction, could continue to be the main factors to generate economic growth in 2009,” said BCR’s Chief Economist, Lucian Anghel.
The situation could improve in 2010, for which BCR forecasts a three percent rise in gross domestic product (GDP). Although foreign direct investments (FDI) are expected to decline this year, Romania remains a profitable market for foreign investors, interested in long-term businesses. FDIs are estimated by BCR at €9 billion in 2008, 26 percent higher year-on-year, covering almost half of the current account deficit.
BCR, Romania’s top lender in terms of assets, forecasts an average exchange rate of RON 4.3/€1 in 2009, and of RON 4.1/€1 in 2010. Moreover, the current account deficit could narrow to 9.4 percent this year and to 8 percent in the coming year.
