“After a 7.7 percent economic growth forecast in 2008, which indicates a strong comeback of the agricultural sector following the prolonged 2007 drought, and the dynamic increase in the consumption of households and in fixed investments, we expect Romania to go into recession in 2009,” according to an EIU report.
EIU analysts estimate a budget deficit of 2.4 percent of GDP in 2009 and of two percent in 2010. Domestic demand is expected to fall six percent this year. However, the Romanian economy could rebound in 2010, when economic growth is estimated at 3.1 percent, supported by a sharp correction of the exchange rate in 2009. The current account deficit is expected to narrow to 10.9 percent this year from 12.6 percent of GDP in 2008, while the average euro-leu exchange rate could climb to RON 4.54/€1.
