The economy declined 8.8 percent in the second quarter of 2009 compared to the corresponding period in 2008 and by 1.2 percent compared to the previous quarter, according to data provided by the National Institute of Statistics (INS). Moreover, Romania’s economy fell 7.6 percent in the first six months. Practically speaking, this means four quarters of economic decline, or one year of recession in Romania. Analysts said that the Romanian economy will bounce back when European markets rebound. And this seems to have begun in the second quarter of this year. “In the end, the evolution of the corporate sector depends greatly on foreign markets. The profits of companies will continue to slide, but at a lower rate for enterprises connected to foreign markets, to exports. On the other hand, I do not see a rebound of companies linked to the internal market, except those producing and selling crisis or niche products,” the President of the Association of Romanian Businesspeople (AOAR), Florin Pogonaru, said.

The Statistical Office of the European Communities (Eurostat) published a report regarding the evolution of European economies in the second quarter of 2009. This report indicates that our country ranked fourth in the European Union in terms of the drop rate of GDP, following Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Analysts interviewed by Business Standard estimated an 8.5-10 percent year-on-year economic decline for the second quarter of 2009. They added that Q2 or Q3 will mark the minimum level of the economic drop. On the other hand, the IMF Mission Chief in Romania, Jeffrey Franks, said Monday that the economy contracted by some 10 percent in Q2 2009, but the lowest level will be reached in this year’s final quarter or in the first three months of 2010.

No major changes are expected in the second half of 2009, as specialists said that the economy will continue to slide. “I believe that the economy will register a decline of eight-nine percent in the third quarter, which will ease slightly in the last three months of this year, to some seven percent,” the Managing Partner of the Financial View consultancy company, Dragoş Cabat, said.

“If Q4 2009 is bad, Q1 2010 will be terrible. And it will be. If the signs of a slowdown in the decline at the international level turn out to be true, then we could see a tempering of the crisis, with stabilization in Q2 2010 in Romania as well,” said Jack Cutişteanu, General Manager of the largest private electricity trader, the Petprod company.