Analysts: BRD earnings up to €340-380 mln in 2008

This means that the lender, run by Chairman Patrick Gelin, could make up approximately one quarter of the profit registered by all bankers in the system in 2008.

At the end of the first nine months of 2008, the lender’s net result amounted to €285 mln, including the funds from the sale of the 25 percent stock owned at the Asiban insurance company. The value of the deal amounted to €62 mln, and the net operating profit rose surged 19 percent compared to the first nine months of 2007, to €223 mln, according to data published by the bank.

Market estimates show that BRD’s net income in last year’s fourth quarter could range between €60-100 mln, considering the lending slowdown due to the international crisis and restrictions on loans for individuals. Most analysts did not venture to forecast BRD’s profit in 2009, putting forward the lack of the bank’s estimates for the time being, but have unanimously anticipated growth rates lower than in 2008.

“I think stagnation, or even a drop, is possible, compared to the net result estimated for last year, of RON 1.345 billion (€365 million). The bank could post a net profit in 2009 similar to last year’s net operating result,” said Adriana Marin, Head of the Analysis Department of the CA IB Securities. Specialists of Raiffeisen Capital & Investment forwarded a 2009 profit of RON 877 mln (€220 mln). Analysts estimate that the lender ended 2008 with assets worth €11.41-12.14 bln, considering its value had amounted to €11.9 bln at the end of last year’s first three quarters.

Adrian Danciu, analyst of SSIF Broker Cluj, says that profit could be influenced by the reassessment of foreign currency loans and deposits, or higher provisions, considering the upward trend of poor performing loans. The figure forwarded by Danciu for BRD’s 2008 profit is the most pessimistic one among the answers of interviewed analysts, of RON 1.25 bln (€340 mln), considering that funds from mother-banks are not entering Romania at the rate Romanian bankers were used to. Thus, the solution remains attracting resources from the local market.

BRD, whose network includes over 900 branches, strengthened the battle on deposits, offering a 7.25 percent interest on the three-month euro deposits made by individuals at the end of 2008. The bank registered revenues worth €590 mln at the end of last year’s first nine months, up by one quarter year-on-year. At the end of the first three quarters, BRD posted a 33 percent Return On Equity (ROE), and a 44 percent cost/revenue ratio.

At the end of September 2008, BRD had 2.6 million clients. The lender’s market value amounts to some €1.32 bln.