“I believe that the central bank will not cut the key rate. And it will not modify the cash reserve ratio (CRR). However, the important thing is that interest rates on the interbank market have declined. Before signing the IMF [International Monetary Fund] agreement these stood at some 16 percent, and now they have fallen to some 12 percent,” said Ionut Dumitru, Chief Economist of Raiffeisen Bank Romania.
The Chief Economist of the Banca Comerciala Romana (BCR) lender, Lucian Anghel, said that BNR will not change the key rate or the cash reserve ratio. Inflation continues to be a thorny issue and represents a strong reason for maintaining the current level of the benchmark rate.
On the other hand, Rozalia Pal, Senior Economist of UniCredit Tiriac Bank, told Business Standard said that she thinks the central bank will cut the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points. “This would be the next step towards relaxation of the monetary policy, after interest rates dropped on the interbank market. We can see that the demand for loans is dropping, the economy is contracting, and this decline in the interest rate could be a signal for less expensive loans. We are expecting further cuts in the key rate,” Pal added.
Nicolae-Alexandru Chidesciuc, Senior Economist of ING Bank Romania, expects that BNR will cut the benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points.
