EIU: Romania, one of the most vulnerable countries to external turbulences

In 2006, direct foreign investments (FDI) of €9.1 billion, almost entirely covered (89.6 percent) the €10.156 bln current account deficit. This coverage rate dropped to half in 2007. Analysts are anticipating a higher deficit this year, double due to a drop in or stagnation of FDI.

Many voices have warned that the current account deficit can no longer be covered by foreign investments. For instance, Mugur Isarescu, Governor of the National Bank of Romania, indicated that FDI would not be able to sustain the current account deficit for long, as a drop thereof must be sustained by a rise in competitiveness.

In percentage terms, Romania’s current account deficit reached 14.2 percent of GDP last year. For this year, estimates show a current account deficit of 15 percent or more of GDP. Other financial institutions see a higher deficit in 2008. The World Bank is forecasting a deficit of 15.3 percent of GDP for 2008 and 14.9 percent for 2009. The Fitch rating agency is expecting a deficit of up to 17.5 percent of GDP in 2008.

In January, Fitch revised Romania’s long-term rating perspective on lei and foreign currency from “stable” to “negative”, due to a higher current account deficit. Fitch also revised its rating perspective for Bulgaria, Estonia and Latvia.