Import growth is estimated at 1.7 percent, compared to 11.9 percent last year. Compared to 2008, this is the most severe slowdown of the trade balance in the country’s recent history.

“The Government is forecasting a 4.7 percent increase in exports. This is very far from reality, and figures are extremely optimistic. The year 2009 will be a year of export recession, and we will register a minus in this field,” according to Mihai Ionescu, President of the National Association of Romanian Exporters and Importers (ANEIR). Ionescu added that exports outside the European Union dropped 30-50 percent in November and December, and that the downward trend will continue this year.

According to economists interviewed by Business Standard, the national currency will not be of much help to exporters, although the leu is constantly depreciating against the euro.

“The depreciation of the national currency is largely cancelled for lack of orders. Gain from the weakness of the leu is not worth much if they have no orders,” said the former President of Banca Romana de Dezvoltare lender (currently BRD-Societe Generale), Bogdan Baltazar. However, Baltazar added that the government should not pass a package of fiscal stimuli differentiated for various types of companies, such as exporters. “Any package of this kind could generate corruption,” he said.

Financial analysts indicated that other macroeconomic prognoses made by the government are also overly optimistic. Economic growth is set to amount to 3.5 percent, with gross domestic product worth RON 588.1 billion (€144.7 billion), while average inflation for 2009 is expected to be 5.3 percent. The general consolidated budget is to register a 1.7-2 percent deficit. “A deficit amounting to 1.7 percent is an optimistic approach, and is difficult to reach. Lately, the government’s intervention in the economy has increased through measures and plans to save certain companies. This means higher budget expenditures. Furthermore, state budget revenues declined significantly in recent months,” according to Piraeus Bank Chief Economist, Otilia Ciotau. “Furthermore, I think that GDP growth of 3.5 percent is too optimistic,” she added.

Furthermore, the average gross salary is to amount to RON 1,702 (€418) per month, compared to RON 1,581 (€388) in 2008. Data provided by the National Prognosis Commission (CNP) also indicates that the unemployment rate is to rise to 5 percent, compared to 4.4 percent in 2008, with a total 460,000 jobless.

‘The Government is forecasting a 4.7 percent increase in exports. This is very far from reality, and figures are extremely optimistic. The year 2009 will be a year of export recession' Mihai Ionescu President, ANEIR