“We are going into recession, which will result in unemployment and deflation, and methods of countering the economic decline are based on reducing and optimizing taxes, in order to boost consumption, and cutting employee and capital-related budgetary expenses,” said Dinu Patriciu, General Manager of the Rompetrol oil company. He added that the current financial crisis could reach its peak in the coming 3-12 months, and the state must stimulate the economy, including by reducing the value added tax (VAT) to 15 percent, and by adopting an adequate flat tax for the economies in the region. In Patriciu’s opinion, a drop in economic growth to 1-2 percent from 9 percent means recession, and unemployed persons can be absorbed only by infrastructure and by large investors who could start producing in Romania if they are offered incentives for this.
Businessman Ioan Niculae, President of Interagro, a company operating in the grain and technical plants growth and the export of fertilizers for agricultural sectors, said that “the withdrawal of capital from foreign banks will continue to provoke shocks” in the Romanian economy in 2009. “I believe Romania is already in recession... I say that by looking at the sectors in which I operate, chemical, agriculture, food industry, and energy, which are in decline. Compared to 2008, which was a rather good year from an economic point of view, at least in the first half, in 2009, if the government does not intervene, the economy will drop,” said Niculae. Businessman Adrian Porumboiu said that Romania cannot avoid recession. “There are clear recession signs, because there is no more money on the market. The recession is obvious. It is a pity that agriculture, the economic sector which contributed significantly to Romania’s economic growth, is much neglected,” he added. In an optimistic scenario, he foresees economic growth of 2-3 percent at most in 2009.
Mihai Marcu, President of the MedLife healthcare provider, said the crisis will reach its peak in September-October 2009, and that the economy will begin to recover toward the end of 2009 and early 2010.
“I believe the effects of the crisis will hit us harder than we expect. We are far more connected to the world economy than we think,” said Valentin Tomsa, General Manager of the SAP Romania business software solution provider.
Marius Cristescu, President of Bega Grup, said that Romania could register economic growth of as much as four percent in the coming year if the state adopts constructive measures to cut budgetary spending and stimulates investments. Ioana Popa, owner of the Transavia company, which operates in the food industry, said that the impact of the crisis will depend largely on the position taken by the National Bank of Romania (BNR), that must either cut the Cash Reserve Ratio sharply or inject €10-12 billion onto the market.
